I started rolling dice this week to see where the results would fall. My original thought was to see what the results were for the new mechanic of grouping to ten vs. the old Target Number set up.
I opted to use 6 dice as most of my players seem to start at around 6k3 for their main attack and I thought that would be an accurate spot to gauge the new results.
I rolled 500 sets of results and grouped based on the following priority: most successes possible, leave the fewest dice unused.
on 6 dice I saw the following results:
71% of the results were 3 successes
14% of the results were 4 successes
12.5% of the results were 2 successes
1% of the results were 5 successes
1% of the results were 1 success
.5% of the results were 0 successes
The reroll of one die improved a roll about 9% of the time.
I tried some smaller sample groups with 5, 7 and 8 dice and it looks like you can rely on seeing 1 success for every 2 dice.
Now for the tricky part: if the players are or relatively equal strength and rolling the same pool, that is going to lead to a HUGE amount of ties in the initiative pool. Which may be something we need to find a work around for.